Pair #2565

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-EALE

Will Ekaterina Alexandrova win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Ekaterina Alexandrova
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 481

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ekaterina Alexandrova wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR22ALECRI-ALE

Will Ekaterina Alexandrova win the Alexandrova vs Cristian : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Ekaterina Alexandrova
Expiration: 2026-03-22T17:00:00Z
Volume: 4993

YES ask: 0.6500
NO ask: 0.3600
Last: 0.6500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ekaterina Alexandrova wins the Alexandrova vs Cristian professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:02:16Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam is a separate event from winning a Round of 32 match at the WTA Miami Open. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -57.60% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -61.89% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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