Pair #2564

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-LFER

Will Leylah Fernandez win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Leylah Fernandez
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 596

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Leylah Fernandez wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR22FERPEG-FER

Will Leylah Fernandez win the Fernandez vs Pegula : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Leylah Fernandez
Expiration: 2026-03-22T17:00:00Z
Volume: 2188

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Leylah Fernandez wins the Fernandez vs Pegula professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:02:16Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam is a separate event from winning a Round of 32 match at the WTA Miami Open. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -21.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -25.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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