Pair #2562

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-TFRI

Will Taylor Fritz win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Taylor Fritz
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3077

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Taylor Fritz wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR22OPEFRI-FRI

Will Taylor Fritz win the Opelka vs Fritz : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Taylor Fritz
Expiration: 2026-03-22T18:00:00Z
Volume: 14700

YES ask: 0.7000
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Taylor Fritz wins the Opelka vs Fritz professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:02:16Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam is a separate event from winning a Round of 32 match at the Miami Open. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -61.33% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6700
Days to maturity: 197
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -65.64% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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