Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-EDM
Will Edmonton Oilers win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Edmonton Oilers
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2103119
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-EDM
Will the Edmonton Oilers be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?
Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Edmonton Oilers
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 65974
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Edmonton Oilers are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:55Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup Finals requires having qualified for and participated in the playoffs. So winning the Cup implies being a playoff qualifier. The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-99.97%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.9700
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-104.19%
BELOW HURDLE