Pair #2558

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR22FILTSI-FIL

Will Arthur Fils win the Fils vs Tsitsipas : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Arthur Fils
Expiration: 2026-03-22T18:00:00Z
Volume: 28066

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Arthur Fils wins the Fils vs Tsitsipas professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXFOMEN-26-FIL

Will Arthur Fils win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Arthur Fils
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 397662

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Arthur Fils wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:02:00Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open and winning a Round of 32 match at the Miami Open are completely separate tournaments and events. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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