Pair #2554

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-FAUG

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Felix Auger-Aliassime
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3311

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Felix Auger-Aliassime wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR22AUGATM-AUG

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the Auger-Aliassime vs Atmane : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Felix Auger-Aliassime
Expiration: 2026-03-22T18:00:00Z
Volume: 36379

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.2500
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Felix Auger-Aliassime wins the Auger-Aliassime vs Atmane professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:02:00Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam and winning a Round of 32 match at the Miami Open (which is not a Grand Slam) are completely separate events. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -59.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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