Pair #2551

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMOMEN-26-PAU

Will Tommy Paul win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Tommy Paul
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 101173

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Paul wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR22PAUCOL-PAU

Will Tommy Paul win the Paul vs Collignon : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Tommy Paul
Expiration: 2026-03-22T18:00:00Z
Volume: 4491

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Paul wins the Paul vs Collignon professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:02:00Z

Reasoning: To win the Miami Open, Tommy Paul must win every match including the Round of 32 match against Collignon. Winning the tournament necessitates winning this specific match. The reverse does not hold — winning one match does not imply winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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