Pair #2550

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CGOT

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4867

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22807

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:02:00Z

Reasoning: Finishing top-10 in all 4 majors does not require winning any of them. Winning a major does not require top-10 in all 4 majors. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -31.60% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -35.81% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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