Pair #2546

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR22ALCKOR-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the Alcaraz vs Korda : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-03-22T18:00:00Z
Volume: 74691

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1200
Last: 0.8900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz wins the Alcaraz vs Korda professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXFOMEN-26-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 379968

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:39Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open is a completely different tournament from the ATP Miami Open. No logical implication exists in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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