Pair #2542

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JSIN

Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 60556

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR22MOUSIN-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the Moutet vs Sinner : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-03-22T18:00:00Z
Volume: 6672

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins the Moutet vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:39Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 is a different tournament from the Miami Open. No logical implication exists in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -22.36% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -26.65% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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