Pair #2540

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP1RANK-26JUN30-JSIN

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Jun 30, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-06-30T16:00:00Z
Volume: 24613

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Jun 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR22MOUSIN-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the Moutet vs Sinner : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-03-22T18:00:00Z
Volume: 6672

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins the Moutet vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:39Z

Reasoning: Being ranked #1 on June 30, 2026 does not logically require winning any specific match in March 2026. Winning a single R32 match does not determine ATP rankings. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 28.95% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 29
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: +24.73% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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