Pair #2536

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMOWOMEN-26-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the WTA Miami Open?

Series: KXMOWOMEN
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z
Volume: 150218

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aryna Sabalenka wins the 2026 WTA Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR22SABMCC-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the Sabalenka vs McNally : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-03-22T17:00:00Z
Volume: 2882

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aryna Sabalenka wins the Sabalenka vs McNally professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:39Z

Reasoning: To win the WTA Miami Open, Sabalenka must win every match in the tournament, including the Round of 32 match against McNally. So winning the tournament logically necessitates winning that match. The reverse does not hold — winning the R32 match does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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