Pair #2535

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-ASAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 11887

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aryna Sabalenka wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR22SABMCC-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the Sabalenka vs McNally : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-03-22T17:00:00Z
Volume: 2882

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aryna Sabalenka wins the Sabalenka vs McNally professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:39Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not require winning the Miami Open R32 match (different tournaments). Winning the Miami R32 match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -47.10% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -51.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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