Pair #2534

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 331372

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aryna Sabalenka wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR22SABMCC-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the Sabalenka vs McNally : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-03-22T17:00:00Z
Volume: 2882

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aryna Sabalenka wins the Sabalenka vs McNally professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:21Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open and winning a Miami Open R32 match are entirely separate events with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5800
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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