Pair #2532

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-KOS

Will Marta Kostyuk win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Marta Kostyuk
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 185193

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

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Rules

If Marta Kostyuk wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR22RYBKOS-KOS

Will Marta Kostyuk win the Rybakina vs Kostyuk : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Marta Kostyuk
Expiration: 2026-03-22T17:00:00Z
Volume: 1404

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marta Kostyuk wins the Rybakina vs Kostyuk professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:21Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open and winning a Miami Open R32 match are entirely separate events with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.68% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -103.90% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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