Antecedent (if this happens)
KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-JOV
Will Iva Jovic win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?
Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Iva Jovic
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4158
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Iva Jovic wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXWTAMATCH-26MAR22JOVGIB-JOV
Will Iva Jovic win the Jovic vs Gibson : Round Of 32 match?
Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Iva Jovic
Expiration: 2026-03-22T17:00:00Z
Volume: 11330
YES ask: 0.6400
NO ask: 0.3700
Last: 0.6400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Iva Jovic wins the Jovic vs Gibson professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:21Z
Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 and winning a Miami Open R32 match are entirely separate events with no logical dependency.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-56.71%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.6300
Days to maturity:
213
Hurdle yield:
4.28%
Excess yield:
-60.99%
BELOW HURDLE