Pair #253

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLPACIFIC-26-ANA

Will Anaheim Ducks win the NHL Pacific Division?

Series: KXNHLPACIFIC
Entity: Anaheim Ducks
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 84020

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025-2026 NHL Pacific Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-ANA

Will the Anaheim Ducks win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Anaheim Ducks
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 36475

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Anaheim Ducks wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:55Z

Reasoning: The President's Trophy goes to the team with the best overall NHL record regardless of division. A team can win the President's Trophy without winning their division if another team in the division had a better record (though that's contradictory — actually the President's Trophy winner has the best record league-wide, but division winner is best in division). In theory a team could win the President's Trophy and also win the Pacific Division, but it's not a logical necessity. A Pacific Division winner need not have the best overall record. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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