Pair #2526

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-KEY

Will Madison Keys win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 58253

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Madison Keys wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR22ZHEKEY-KEY

Will Madison Keys win the Zheng vs Keys : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-03-22T17:00:00Z
Volume: 6895

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Madison Keys wins the Zheng vs Keys professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:21Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open and winning a Miami Open R32 match are entirely separate events with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5500
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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