Pair #2525

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMOWOMEN-26-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the WTA Miami Open?

Series: KXMOWOMEN
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z
Volume: 9229

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jessica Pegula wins the 2026 WTA Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR22FERPEG-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the Fernandez vs Pegula : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-03-22T17:00:00Z
Volume: 5581

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.1600
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jessica Pegula wins the Fernandez vs Pegula professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:21Z

Reasoning: To win the WTA Miami Open, Pegula must win every match in the tournament. The R32 match against Fernandez is part of that tournament, so winning the Miami Open necessarily means she won this R32 match. The reverse does not hold — winning the R32 match does not guarantee winning the whole tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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