Pair #2524

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-JPEG

Will Jessica Pegula win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3587

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR22FERPEG-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the Fernandez vs Pegula : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-03-22T17:00:00Z
Volume: 5581

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.1600
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins the Fernandez vs Pegula professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:21Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not require winning a Miami Open R32 match, and winning a Miami R32 match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. Completely separate events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -62.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -67.24% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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