Pair #2523

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 97143

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jessica Pegula wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR22FERPEG-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the Fernandez vs Pegula : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-03-22T17:00:00Z
Volume: 5581

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.1600
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jessica Pegula wins the Fernandez vs Pegula professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:21Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open does not require winning a Miami Open R32 match, and winning a Miami R32 match does not imply winning the French Open. These are entirely separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8400
Days to maturity: 9
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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