Pair #2521

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-CORT

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Carlos Ortiz finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Carlos Ortiz
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 445

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.8900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Ortiz finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-CORT

Will Carlos Ortiz win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Carlos Ortiz
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 792008

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Ortiz wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:05Z

Reasoning: These are completely independent events — one is about LIV Golf South Africa and the other is about the Masters Tournament. Neither result logically necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9910
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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