Pair #2519

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DSKI

Valspar Championship: Will David Skinns finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: David Skinns
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2494

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Skinns finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DSKI

Valspar Championship: Will David Skinns finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: David Skinns
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1634

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Skinns finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:05Z

Reasoning: If David Skinns finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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