Pair #2517

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-HNOR

Valspar Championship: Will Henrik Norlander finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Henrik Norlander
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2232

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Henrik Norlander finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-HNOR

Valspar Championship: Will Henrik Norlander finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Henrik Norlander
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 983

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Henrik Norlander finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:05Z

Reasoning: If Henrik Norlander finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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