Pair #2516

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-HNOR

Will Henrik Norlander win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Henrik Norlander
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 317

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Henrik Norlander wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-HNOR

Valspar Championship: Will Henrik Norlander finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Henrik Norlander
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 983

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Henrik Norlander finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:05Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament (1st place) necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee a win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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