Pair #2512

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-JSMI

Will Jordan L. Smith win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 475535

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan L. Smith wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JSMI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 416

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan L. Smith finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:01:05Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily a top 10 finish. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not guarantee a win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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