Pair #2510

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JSMI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 416

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JSMI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1748

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:00:48Z

Reasoning: If Jordan L. Smith finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold (top 20 does not imply top 10).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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