Pair #2507

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-MPAV

Valspar Championship: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 441

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthieu Pavon finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MPAV

Valspar Championship: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10453

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthieu Pavon finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:00:48Z

Reasoning: If Matthieu Pavon finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold (top 20 does not imply top 5).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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