Pair #2504

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-MWAL

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Wallace finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4463

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Wallace finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MWAL

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Wallace finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20956

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Wallace finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:00:48Z

Reasoning: If Matt Wallace finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold (top 20 does not imply top 5).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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