Pair #2501

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-SJAE

Valspar Championship: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1044

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-SJAE

Valspar Championship: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3664

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:00:48Z

Reasoning: If Stephan Jaeger finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold (top 20 does not imply top 10).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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