Pair #25

Antecedent (implies)

KXGOLFTENNISMAJORS-26-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win more major tournaments in 2026?

Series: KXGOLFTENNISMAJORS
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-09-14T14:00:00Z
Volume: 566

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins more major tournaments than Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau combined in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXMOMEN-26-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 1754

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:51:04Z

Reasoning: The Miami Open is not a tennis major (Grand Slam), so winning it does not count toward Sinner's major tally in Event B. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -33.03% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: 181
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -37.25% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T09:53:59Z

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