Pair #2498

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ADUM

Valspar Championship: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 514

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ADUM

Valspar Championship: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4512

YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:00:32Z

Reasoning: If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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