Pair #2490

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-AANC

Will Abraham Ancer win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Abraham Ancer
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 56601

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Abraham Ancer wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-AANC

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Abraham Ancer finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Abraham Ancer
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 452

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.4800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Abraham Ancer finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:00:32Z

Reasoning: If Abraham Ancer wins the tournament, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily top 5. However, finishing top 5 does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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