Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-ANA
Will Anaheim Ducks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Anaheim Ducks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2879856
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLWEST-26-ANA
Western Conference Finals Winner?
Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: Anaheim Ducks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 578888
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Anaheim Ducks wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:55Z
Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, the Ducks must have won the Western Conference Finals to reach the Finals. So winning the Cup implies winning the Western Conference Finals. The reverse does not hold — winning the Western Conference Finals means they go to the Cup Finals but could lose.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-36.98%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0400
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-41.20%
BELOW HURDLE