Pair #249

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-ANA

Will Anaheim Ducks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Anaheim Ducks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2879856

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLWEST-26-ANA

Western Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: Anaheim Ducks
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 578888

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Anaheim Ducks wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:55Z

Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, the Ducks must have won the Western Conference Finals to reach the Finals. So winning the Cup implies winning the Western Conference Finals. The reverse does not hold — winning the Western Conference Finals means they go to the Cup Finals but could lose.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -36.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -41.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T09:57:15Z

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