Pair #2488

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-BGRA

Will Branden Grace win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Branden Grace
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 103111

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Branden Grace wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-BGRA

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Branden Grace finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Branden Grace
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 348

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.3600
Last: 0.8500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Branden Grace finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:00:32Z

Reasoning: If Branden Grace wins the tournament, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily top 10. However, finishing top 10 does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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