Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-BGRA
LIV Golf South Africa: Will Branden Grace finish top 5?
Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Branden Grace
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1125
YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.5500
Last: 0.7900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Branden Grace finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-BGRA
LIV Golf South Africa: Will Branden Grace finish top 10?
Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Branden Grace
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 348
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.3600
Last: 0.8500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Branden Grace finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-22T08:00:32Z
Reasoning: If Branden Grace finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 10 as well (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.5500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A