Pair #2432

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JDAH

Valspar Championship: Will Joel Dahmen finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3368

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joel Dahmen finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JDAH

Valspar Championship: Will Joel Dahmen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 23083

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joel Dahmen finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:06:58Z

Reasoning: If Dahmen finishes top 10, he necessarily also finishes top 20. The reverse is not true — he could finish 11th-20th.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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