Pair #2428

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-LFER

Will Leylah Fernandez win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Leylah Fernandez
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 596

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Leylah Fernandez wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR20FERSEL-FER

Will Leylah Fernandez win the Fernandez vs Selekhmeteva : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Leylah Fernandez
Expiration: 2026-03-20T17:00:00Z
Volume: 5117

YES ask: 0.6600
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Leylah Fernandez wins the Fernandez vs Selekhmeteva professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:06:45Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not require winning a Miami Open Round of 64 match (different tournaments), and winning that Miami match does not imply winning a Grand Slam.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -57.87% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -62.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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