Pair #2426

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-AZEV

Will Alexander Zverev win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 31714

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Zverev wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR20DAMZVE-ZVE

Will Alexander Zverev win the Damm Jr vs Zverev : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-03-20T18:00:00Z
Volume: 11184

YES ask: 0.9100
NO ask: 0.1100
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Zverev wins the Damm Jr vs Zverev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:06:45Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not require winning a Miami Open Round of 64 match (different tournaments), and winning that Miami match does not imply winning a Grand Slam.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -45.01% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4200
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -49.30% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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