Pair #2423

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-BSHE

Will Ben Shelton win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Ben Shelton
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8926

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Shelton wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR21SHESHE2-SHE

Will Ben Shelton win the Shelton vs Shevchenko : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Ben Shelton
Expiration: 2026-03-22T02:00:00Z
Volume: 689

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Shelton wins the Shelton vs Shevchenko professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:06:45Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not require winning a Miami Open Round of 64 match (different tournaments), and winning that Miami match does not imply winning a Grand Slam.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -64.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -68.44% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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