Pair #2421

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOMEN-26-TSI

Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Stefanos Tsitsipas
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 32808

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stefanos Tsitsipas wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXMOMEN-26-TSI

Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Stefanos Tsitsipas
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 6707

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stefanos Tsitsipas wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:06:45Z

Reasoning: Winning the Miami Open does not imply winning the French Open, and vice versa. These are separate tournaments with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -33.20% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 9
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -37.42% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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