Pair #2420

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-FAUG

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Felix Auger-Aliassime
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3311

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Felix Auger-Aliassime wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR21AUGFUC-AUG

Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the Auger-Aliassime vs Fucsovics : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Felix Auger-Aliassime
Expiration: 2026-03-21T18:00:00Z
Volume: 14544

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2600
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Felix Auger-Aliassime wins the Auger-Aliassime vs Fucsovics professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:06:45Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not require winning a Miami Open Round of 64 match, and winning that Miami match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. These are completely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -60.52% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.80% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue