Pair #2415

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMOMEN-26-MEN

Will Jakub Mensik win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Jakub Mensik
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 3827

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jakub Mensik wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR21WALMEN-MEN

Will Jakub Mensik win the Walton vs Mensik : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Jakub Mensik
Expiration: 2026-03-21T18:00:00Z
Volume: 1690

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jakub Mensik wins the Walton vs Mensik professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:06:26Z

Reasoning: To win the ATP Miami Open, Mensik must win every match including the Round of 64 against Walton. Winning the tournament implies winning this earlier match. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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