Pair #2414

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMOMEN-26-TIE

Will Learner Tien win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Learner Tien
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 1201

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Learner Tien wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR20MAJTIE-TIE

Will Learner Tien win the Majchrzak vs Tien : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Learner Tien
Expiration: 2026-03-20T18:00:00Z
Volume: 31187

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.2600
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Learner Tien wins the Majchrzak vs Tien professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:06:26Z

Reasoning: To win the ATP Miami Open, Tien must win every match including the Round of 64 match against Majchrzak. Winning the tournament implies winning this earlier round match. The reverse does not hold — winning the Round of 64 does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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