Pair #241

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLWEST-26-COL

Western Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: Colorado Avalanche
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2321040

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1000

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Rules

If Colorado Avalanche wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-COL

Will the Colorado Avalanche be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Colorado Avalanche
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 8605

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Colorado Avalanche are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:04:36Z

Reasoning: Winning the Western Conference Finals requires having made the playoffs, so it implies being a playoff qualifier. The reverse does not hold — making the playoffs does not mean Colorado wins the conference finals.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9000
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:31:26Z

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