Pair #2405

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXDPWORLDTOUR-HACPBM26-AARN

Will Adri Arnaus win the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO?

Series: KXDPWORLDTOUR
Entity: Adri Arnaus
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1873

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adri Arnaus wins the Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXDPWORLDTOURMAKECUT-HACPBM26-AARN

Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO: Will Adri Arnaus make the cut?

Series: KXDPWORLDTOURMAKECUT
Entity: Adri Arnaus
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3018

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adri Arnaus makes the cut in the 2026 Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:06:05Z

Reasoning: To win a golf tournament, a player must make the cut — you cannot win without surviving the cut. If Arnaus wins the Hainan Classic, he must have made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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