Pair #2403

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JSIN

Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 60556

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR20DZUSIN-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the Dzumhur vs Sinner : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-03-20T18:00:00Z
Volume: 32756

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0300
Last: 0.9800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins the Dzumhur vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:06:05Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not require winning a Miami Open Round of 64 match — Miami Open is not a Grand Slam. And winning the Miami match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -23.59% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -27.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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