Pair #2402

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMOMEN-26-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 199273

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0800
Last: 0.9300

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Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR20DZUSIN-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the Dzumhur vs Sinner : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-03-20T18:00:00Z
Volume: 32756

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0300
Last: 0.9800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins the Dzumhur vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:06:05Z

Reasoning: To win the ATP Miami Open, Sinner must win every match in the tournament, including the Round of 64 match against Dzumhur. If he wins the tournament, he must have won this earlier round. The reverse does not hold — winning this match does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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