Pair #24

Antecedent (implies)

KXFOMEN-26-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 31040

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3100

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Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (implied)

KXMOMEN-26-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 1754

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:50:46Z

Reasoning: The Miami Open and the French Open are completely separate tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -40.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: 85
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -45.05% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T09:54:02Z

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