Pair #2399

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-DMED

Will Daniil Medvedev win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13148

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR21SAKMED-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win the Sakamoto vs Medvedev : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-03-21T18:00:00Z
Volume: 6184

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Daniil Medvedev wins the Sakamoto vs Medvedev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-21T08:06:05Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not require winning a Miami Open Round of 64 match — Miami Open is not a Grand Slam. And winning the Miami match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -68.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9000
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -73.14% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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